Week 6 Projections linked above and embedded below. Only thing notable I’m seeing now is Higbee/Everett (whoever LAR starting TE is) as TE7, both should still be available in leagues.
Week 5! My big trade target this week is Austin Hooper – TE6. He’s likely the least “untouchable” of the top tier TEs that also has Ertz, Engram, Waller, Andrews, and Kelce. Andrews may be the next down in trade rankings as 42-53% snap rate may be a concern vs Hooper’s 76-89%.
I’m going to try to track down a easy “% Owned” for waiver wire targets, but nothing really pops out at me with a quick scroll. Maybe Tyler Higbee as TE12 (I need TEs), Cole Beasley WR33. Marcus Mariota is my #2 QB, but I also haven’t not had as good of luck predicting QB performance as I have other positions (on my list of things to look at), so that may be safe to ignore. I’m going to pick up Mariota in case I lose faith in “The Jonesen One.”
Super interesting this week to see shifts from draft day in players’ projections. Looking at 0.5 PPR – 6 pt QB TB, Christian McCaffrey holds as #1 overall, but Darren Waller has emerged to TE3, Alshon Jeffrey (if healthy) is WR2, Phillip Lindsay climbs to RB6. For potential waiver pickups, Daniel Jones and Kyle Allen are QB4 and QB10, Wayne Gallman is RB14 (Saquon out), Vernon Davis is TE11 (Jordan Reed out), @MSilbAnalytics for other analysis.
Updates for Week 2 including roster moves, signings, trades, and updated depth charts. No notable waiver wire picks are popping out this week. Most notable, Derrick Henry moves up the #1 or #2 RB in most formats.
2019 Rankings Link TO DOWNLOAD
2019 Fantasy Football Rankings and Point Projections are ready to go. Updates will continue as cuts, signings, and trades are made. Read below for rankings, players to target, players to avoid, and sleepers.
Last Updated: 09/07/2019
Roster Updates Reflected:
– LeSean McCoy cut from Buffalo, still unsigned – SIGNED
– Ezekiel Elliott likely to sign before week 1 (included in rankings) – SIGNED
– Melvin Gordon not expected to sign (excluded from rankings).
– LeSean McCoy > KC RB2. Carlos Hyde > HOU RB2.
– Josh Doctson > MIN WR3.
– Official Week 1 Depth Chart Updates
– Antonio Brown released from the Oakland Raiders (?!?!?!?!?!)
2019 RANKINGS LINK (Google Sheet – Open for a better view)
– Pos Rank – Rank of each player within their position by fantasy points
– Fpts – Projected Fantasy Points.
– PosIndex (NEW) – PosIndex is a 100-based index based around the ‘replacement starter’ at each position (QB – 12th ranked, RB/WR – 24th, TE 12th). Ex: JuJu Smith-Schuster has a 157 index in standard leagues, which means he’s 57% better than the ‘replacement’ WR option.
– ADP – Average Draft Position
– ADR – Average Draft Round (12-team league)
Best High ADP Players
|Christian McCaffrey||RB||CAR||270||1 (2)|
|JuJu Smith-Schuster||WR||PIT||157||2 (14)|
|Travis Kelce||TE||KC||156||2 (15)|
|James Conner||RB||PIT||145||2 (16)|
|Todd Gurley||RB||LAR||143||1 (9)|
|Zach Ertz||TE||PHI||141||3 (28)|
|Adam Thielen||WR||MIN||140||3 (30)|
High ADP Players to Avoid?
|Stefon Diggs||WR||MIN||84||3 (36)|
|Odell Beckham Jr.||WR||CLE||87||2 (13)|
|Tyreek Hill||WR||KC||88||1 (5)|
|Devonta Freeman||RB||ATL||89||3 (26)|
|Kerryon Johnson||RB||DET||95||3 (29)|
|Derrick Henry||RB||TEN||98||3 (34)|
|Le’Veon Bell||RB||NYJ||108||1 (6)|
|Duke Johnson Jr.||RB||CLE||136||7|
As mentioned previously, use PosIndex and ADP in conjunction to build your personal strategy and make round-by-round decisions. The chart below shows a macro look:
The chart above shows the stack ranked PosIndex for each position. At RB there’s a by far and away #1 (McCaffrey), with a tier drop-of around #1. Between ~12-32, RBs and WRs have equal value off the board, and RB drops off around #35 to a new tier, but WRs never show a clear drop-off point through #65 (aside from slight tier breaks around #11 and #24.
My Takeaway: Grab RBs early if you can, and avoid getting duped by WRs 12-32 as WRs have the highest value late, whereas RBs do have a drop-off point. This new wave of drafting WRs like RBs is a losing strategy.
Looking at PosIndex through the lens of Average Draft Round (ADR) for a 12-team league helps us think through this strategy a bit more. We can see some of the same trends (WR value maintaining throughout the draft), but we also see when we need to prioritize specific positions:
– RB: If you don’t get a top guy, you’re still safe in rounds 5-7, however once you hit round 8, there is a HUGE drop-off. Having your starters + bench RBs done by round 8 is a must.
– TE: The drop-off through the first few rounds is intense, so don’t reach if you don’t grab a top guy early. We don’t see another drop-off until round 13, so you have time.
– QB: Nobody knows anything, pick your poison.
Early stats projections for Week 5 of the NFL Season are below. Select the appropriate tab for your scoring model.
Updated projections for week 4 of the NFL Season. Actives/Inactives + Roster and Depth Chart Moves (Josh Gordon, Baker Mayfield, Josh Rosen). Select the appropriate tab for you scoring model.
- Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield are top QBs
- Gio Bernard is a top 15 RB with Joe Mixon out
- Larry Fitzgerald should still be a top 5 WR