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NFL Wild Card Week is just a short time away. Finally, the playoffs! For DFS this means a few things: 1. A limited number of players and games to pick from, 2. A large sample size of work to look at. Unless of course, you’re trying to pick an AFC Quarterback, and that’s where we’ll start.
Backup QBs Connor Cook and Matt Moore, as well as previously benched Brock Osweiler will all be starting this week. Brock Osweiler has been the best fantasy points wise, averaging 12.4 PPG to Moore’s 9.6 (Cook scored 8 points on 21 attempts in Week 17). It’s all a big mess. In 50/50 cash games I’m staying away from them, but for tournament style it might be worth taking a flier if you want more cap space elsewhere. Of those three, Osweiler is the most guaranteed pick and has the best defensive matchup at home vs Oakland (Moore @ PIT, Cook @ HOU). Ben Roethlisberger has the highest value and could have huge numbers vs an injured Dolphins secondary. However, when the two teams met in Miami, the Dolphins D-Line got to Big Ben, knocking him out and forcing him to play hurt. Aaron Rodgers is overpriced, and Matt Stafford is popping out at me as a nice cheap option, but the matchup against Seattle is rough.
At RB, it should be no surprise to see Le’Veon Bell, and Jay Ajayi. Le’Veon is great, he doesn’t need any kind of explanation. Interesting note about Jay Ajayi, the Dolphins win against the Steelers in Week 6 started Miami’s mid-season win streak and was also the first of Jay Ajayi’s 200+ yard games. The last time Jay Ajayi rematched against a team he went for 200+ against (Buffalo), he did it again. I’m hopping aboard the Jay Train all the way to London. Lamar Miller and Latavius Murray follow in the confusing Radiers-Texans matchup, but I believe Ty Montgomery has breakout potential by running and catching the ball. If the game in Green Bay turns run-heavy, look for Montgomery to go off.
WR is by far and away the deepest position wild card week. You have Odell Beckham Jr., Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson and on and on. My main hesitation is that there are also great options for secondary receivers. Sterling Shepard, Davante Adams, and others are mixed in with the lower #1 WR group. It’s really hard to differentiate, but if you want to go for the big name running backs, it might be wise to give up the top names and load up with high-value #2 WRs.
At TE, you really only have a few names to pick from. The best TE of the week should be in the group of Graham, Ebron, Green, Fiedorowicz, and Cook. I’d suggest taking this position to either save cap space, or stack up with your QB. Note that the Seahawks (vs DET, Ebron) and Texans (vs OAK, Walford) are the 3rd and 4th best defenses vs TE fantasy points.
For the FLEX spot, I’m going to try to get one of those nice #2 or #3 WRs. As for K and DEF, I’m all about ignoring them until you have your optimal offensive player lineup. You can fit K and DEF into the puzzle later. They’re too unpredictable to plan around.
Good luck to all, and WIN WIN WIN!