FF 2018 – Week 5 Projections

Early stats projections for Week 5 of the NFL Season are below. Select the appropriate tab for your scoring model.

Google Sheet Link

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2018 Fantasy Football Point Projections

msilbanalytics18

[Update 8/28/18 – I found a more reliable depth chart source, and recovered more detailed historical data. In short, projected passes/carries/targets and fantasy points are even more accurate!]

[Update 9/318 – Updated with roster cuts, other transactions, and injuries]

See the Google Sheet (link) below with tabs for different types of scoring models. If your scoring system is missing, please let me know!

Stay tuned to www.MSilbAnalytics.com for week-to-week updates, and follow @MSilb7 and @MSilbAnalytics on Twitter.

New for 2018:

  • Individual statistics and actual fantasy point projections rather than a derived “value” metric.
  • Statistics are driven by projected possessions dependent on the teams’ schemes, and the players’ histories.
  • Rookies! Approximated by the pre-season, but nevertheless, we have rookies.

See my bold predictions and next steps below the table.

2018 NFL Fantasy Stats Projections Link

Bold Predictions (in order of boldness):

    • Sam Bradford will lead the league in passing TDs and be the top scoring fantasy QB
      • Yes, this makes me nervous too, but he’s rated as the #30 QB by ESPN, so why not grab him in the last few rounds?
    • Tom Brady will be the #14 fantasy QB
      • You can’t fix old.
    • Geoff Swaim (or whoever starts at TE for the Cowboys) will be the #5 fantasy TE.
      • Whoever fills the Jason Witten void will be a huge value pick. Witten, who is now retired, was #2 in receptions for the Cowboys last year. If one player fills that void, they will be HUGE.
    • Kenyan Drake… actually good?
      • The Dolphins fan in me loves this, but Kenyan Drake projects as a top 5 RB in all leagues ahead of names like Ezekiel Elliot and Todd Gurley.
    • Dede Westbrook will be a top 10 WR
      • With Hurns and Robinson gone, and Marquise Lee out for the season, Dede takes over as the #1 receiving option in Jax for the BOAT.
      • Update 9/3/18 – Dede Westbrook lost the #1 position on the Depth Chart to Keelan Cole, who now projects as the #15 fantasy WR (Dede falls to #34).
    • Larry Fitzgerald will be the top scoring fantasy WR
      • Makes for a convenient package with Bradford, ranked the #11 WR by ESPN, so spin him into a good value pick)

Next Steps:

  • Integrate Weekly Schedules
  • Pull in ESPN/Yahoo/NFL Fantasy Rankings to calculate the difference (and actually measure draft value)

Week 9 NFL DFS and Waiver Intriguing Plays (Sun-Mon)

* See Week 9 NFL Daily Fantasy Sports Projections for a complete breakdown *

     Happy NFL Sunday!  Daylight Savings means we have an extra hour to over-analyze, tinker, and obsess over our lineups for the week.  I’ll highlight a few intriguing plays for the week for DFS as well as some quick pickups for your season long leagues to cover for bye weeks.  For intriguing DFS plays I’m looking for low salary guys that have the potential to put in a solid top-10 performance and potentially even break out.  For Season-Long pickups, I’m looking towards the average group who has a solid matchup this week or are playing as injury replacements.  Hopefully players I’m putting down have a chance at being available in your season-long leagues.  I’m going off of my college friends and work leagues.  Remember to connect with me on Twitter at @MSilbAnalytics to continue to analysis conversation.  Here we go week 9!

DFS

Name – Team v Opp – ($ FD/$ DK)

QB:
Drew Brees – NO v SF (8600/7200)
Sam Bradford – MIN v DET (7400/5000)
Ben Roethlisberger – PIT v BAL (7500/6600)
Dak Prescott – DAL v CLE (7600/6100)
Josh McCown – CLE v DAL (7100/5400)

RB:
DeMarco Murray – TEN v SD (8100/7600)
Ezekiel Elliot – DAL v CLE (9200/7900)
Le’Veon Bell – PIT v BAL (8700/7700)
Jay Ajayi – MIA v NYJ (7100/6000)
Terrance West – BAL v PIT (6400/4700)
Isaiah Crowell – CLE v DAL (6000/3900)
Charcandrick West – KC v JAC (5600/4400)

WR:
Corey Coleman – CLE v DAL (5600/4500)
Kenny Britt – LA v NO (6000/4400)
Tavon Austin – LA v NO (5600/4200)
Antonio Brown – PIT v BAL (8700/8900)
Emmanuel Sanders – DEN v OAK (6800/6300)
Michael Thomas – NO v SF (5800/5500)
Jeremy Kerley – SF v NO (5300/4000)

TE:
Kyle Rudolph – MIN v DET (5000/4000)
Dennis Pitta – BAL v PIT (5200/3800)
Eric Ebron – DET v MIN (5400/3100)
Lance Kendricks – LA v SF (4500/2900)

Season-Long

Name – Team v Opp – Score+ (Not Matchup Adj.)

QB:
Sam Bradford – MIN v DET – 61.75
Josh McCown – CLE v DAL – 65.67

RB:
Darren Sproles – PHI v NYG – 49.46
Charcandrick West KC v JAC – -10.54

WR:
Corey Coleman – CLE v DAL – 173.39
Kenny Britt – LA v CAR – 121.00
Jeremy Kerley – SF v NO – 96.63

TE:
Dennis Pitta – BAL v PIT – 159.73
Lance Kendricks – LA v SF – 69.95
Jack Doyle – IND v GB – 73.32