FF 2018 – Week 1 Projections

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2018 Fantasy Football Point Projections – Update 9/3/18

msilbanalytics18

[Update 9/318 – Updated with roster cuts, other transactions, and injuries]

See the Google Sheet (link) below with tabs for different types of scoring models. If your scoring system is missing, please let me know!

Stay tuned to www.MSilbAnalytics.com for week-to-week updates, and follow @MSilb7 and @MSilbAnalytics on Twitter.

New for 2018:

  • Individual statistics and actual fantasy point projections rather than a derived “value” metric.
  • Statistics are driven by projected possessions dependent on the teams’ schemes, and the players’ histories.
  • Rookies! Approximated by the pre-season, but nevertheless, we have rookies.

See my bold predictions and next steps below the table.

2018 NFL Fantasy Stats Projections Link

Bold Predictions (in order of boldness):

    • Sam Bradford will lead the league in passing TDs and be the top scoring fantasy QB
      • Yes, this makes me nervous too, but he’s rated as the #30 QB by ESPN, so why not grab him in the last few rounds?
    • Tom Brady will be the #14 fantasy QB
      • You can’t fix old.
    • Rob Gronkowski falls off, and will be the #11 fantasy TE
    • Geoff Swaim (or whoever starts at TE for the Cowboys) will be the #5 fantasy TE.
      • Whoever fills the Jason Witten void will be a huge value pick. Witten, who is now retired, was #2 in receptions for the Cowboys last year. If one player fills that void, they will be HUGE.
    • Kenyan Drake… actually good?
      • The Dolphins fan in me loves this, but Kenyan Drake projects as a top 5 RB in all leagues ahead of names like Ezekiel Elliot and Todd Gurley.
    • Larry Fitzgerald will be the top scoring fantasy WR
      • Makes for a convenient package with Bradford, ranked the #11 WR by ESPN, so spin him into a good value pick)

Next Steps:

  • Integrate Weekly Schedules
  • Pull in ESPN/Yahoo/NFL Fantasy Rankings to calculate the difference (and actually measure draft value)

 

2018 Fantasy Football Point Projections

msilbanalytics18

[Update 8/28/18 – I found a more reliable depth chart source, and recovered more detailed historical data. In short, projected passes/carries/targets and fantasy points are even more accurate!]

[Update 9/318 – Updated with roster cuts, other transactions, and injuries]

See the Google Sheet (link) below with tabs for different types of scoring models. If your scoring system is missing, please let me know!

Stay tuned to www.MSilbAnalytics.com for week-to-week updates, and follow @MSilb7 and @MSilbAnalytics on Twitter.

New for 2018:

  • Individual statistics and actual fantasy point projections rather than a derived “value” metric.
  • Statistics are driven by projected possessions dependent on the teams’ schemes, and the players’ histories.
  • Rookies! Approximated by the pre-season, but nevertheless, we have rookies.

See my bold predictions and next steps below the table.

2018 NFL Fantasy Stats Projections Link

Bold Predictions (in order of boldness):

    • Sam Bradford will lead the league in passing TDs and be the top scoring fantasy QB
      • Yes, this makes me nervous too, but he’s rated as the #30 QB by ESPN, so why not grab him in the last few rounds?
    • Tom Brady will be the #14 fantasy QB
      • You can’t fix old.
    • Geoff Swaim (or whoever starts at TE for the Cowboys) will be the #5 fantasy TE.
      • Whoever fills the Jason Witten void will be a huge value pick. Witten, who is now retired, was #2 in receptions for the Cowboys last year. If one player fills that void, they will be HUGE.
    • Kenyan Drake… actually good?
      • The Dolphins fan in me loves this, but Kenyan Drake projects as a top 5 RB in all leagues ahead of names like Ezekiel Elliot and Todd Gurley.
    • Dede Westbrook will be a top 10 WR
      • With Hurns and Robinson gone, and Marquise Lee out for the season, Dede takes over as the #1 receiving option in Jax for the BOAT.
      • Update 9/3/18 – Dede Westbrook lost the #1 position on the Depth Chart to Keelan Cole, who now projects as the #15 fantasy WR (Dede falls to #34).
    • Larry Fitzgerald will be the top scoring fantasy WR
      • Makes for a convenient package with Bradford, ranked the #11 WR by ESPN, so spin him into a good value pick)

Next Steps:

  • Integrate Weekly Schedules
  • Pull in ESPN/Yahoo/NFL Fantasy Rankings to calculate the difference (and actually measure draft value)

Fantasy Football Toolbox: Depth Charts and Schedules

It’s the 2018 NFL Season, and @MSilbanalytics is back! Full rankings should be expected over the next few days – 1 week, but I’ll start off by sharing some of the data I’ve collected to build a Fantasy Football Toolbox.

Depth Charts: The big advancement in my 2018 projection models is including team depth charts to add an element of passes/rushes/targets. The struggle here is that it’s incredibly difficult to track down historical depth charts. As an assumption, the lead rusher (by carries) for a team each week will be determined to be the #1 RB, the lead receiver (by targets) for a team each week will be #1 WR or #1 TE, and so on.

Schedules: On top of depth charts, this year I’ll be implementing schedule impact on individual games and individual positions. Luckily, schedules are easier to come across, but I only went back to 2016 to stay consistent with the depth chart data that we have.

See the google sheet below (hopefully embedding works – LINK)

Technical Tools: For those interested, I used python to extract this data. You wold 100% hate your life if you tried to get this information manually. More detail:

  • Jupyter Notebooks: Python IDE (user interface)
  • URLlib + BeautifulSoup (html extraction)
  • Pandas (I like dataframes better than tables)
  • NumPy (to do math)
  • RE (to work with text)
  • OrderedDict (unordered would be nonsense)
  • csv (to make csv files).

NFL Championship Round DFS Player Projections

Click here for NFL Championship Round DFS Fantasy Football Player Rankings (.xlsx)

Get ready for the NFL Championship Round Playoffs slate of games!  Player Projections are listed below.  Choose wisely and try to get some wins this week!  Connect with me on Twitter as @MSilbAnalytics to talk strategy for the week.

SCHEDULE:
GB @ ATL – 3:05 PM
PIT @ NE – 6:40 PM

As usual, the Green Value categories are adjusted for player salaries on FanDuel and DraftKings respectively.  All positional rankings are sorted by the average of these two values (AVG V+)

Check you Over/Under lines for high scoring games, keep up to date on injury news, and WIN!

QB

p3qb

RB

p3rb
WR

p3wr

TE

p3te

NFL Divisional Round Fantasy Football DFS Player Projections

Click here for NFL Divisional Round DFS Fantasy Football Player Rankings (.xlsx)

Get ready for the NFL Divisional Round Playoffs slate of games!  Player Projections are listed below.  Choose wisely and try to get some wins this week!  Connect with me on Twitter as @MSilbAnalytics to talk strategy for the week.

SCHEDULE:
SEA @ ATL – Sat 4:35 PM
HOU @ NE – Sat 8:15 PM

GB @ DAL – Sun 4:40 PM
PIT @ KC – Sun 8:40 PM

As usual, the Green Value categories are adjusted for player salaries on FanDuel and DraftKings respectively.  All positional rankings are sorted by the average of these two values (AVG V+)

Check you Over/Under lines for high scoring games, keep up to date on injury news, and WIN!

QB

p2qb

RBp2rbWR
p2wr

TEp2te

NFL Wild Card Playoffs – Intriguing Fantasy Football Players

See the Twitter stream below.

Link to Player Rankings Post

     NFL Wild Card Week is just a short time away.  Finally, the playoffs!  For DFS this means a few things: 1. A limited number of players and games to pick from, 2. A large sample size of work to look at.  Unless of course, you’re trying to pick an AFC Quarterback, and that’s where we’ll start.

     Backup QBs Connor Cook and Matt Moore, as well as previously benched Brock Osweiler will all be starting this week.  Brock Osweiler has been the best fantasy points wise, averaging 12.4 PPG to Moore’s 9.6 (Cook scored 8 points on 21 attempts in Week 17).  It’s all a big mess.  In 50/50 cash games I’m staying away from them, but for tournament style it might be worth taking a flier if you want more cap space elsewhere.  Of those three, Osweiler is the most guaranteed pick and has the best defensive matchup at home vs Oakland (Moore @ PIT, Cook @ HOU).  Ben Roethlisberger has the highest value and could have huge numbers vs an injured Dolphins secondary.  However, when the two teams met in Miami, the Dolphins D-Line got to Big Ben, knocking him out and forcing him to play hurt.  Aaron Rodgers is overpriced, and Matt Stafford is popping out at me as a nice cheap option, but the matchup against Seattle is rough.

     At RB, it should be no surprise to see Le’Veon Bell, and Jay Ajayi.  Le’Veon is great, he doesn’t need any kind of explanation.  Interesting note about Jay Ajayi, the Dolphins win against the Steelers in Week 6 started Miami’s mid-season win streak and was also the first of Jay Ajayi’s 200+ yard games.  The last time Jay Ajayi rematched against a team he went for 200+ against (Buffalo), he did it again.  I’m hopping aboard the Jay Train all the way to London.  Lamar Miller and Latavius Murray follow in the confusing Radiers-Texans matchup, but I believe Ty Montgomery has breakout potential by running and catching the ball.  If the game in Green Bay turns run-heavy, look for Montgomery to go off.

     WR is by far and away the deepest position wild card week.  You have Odell Beckham Jr., Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson and on and on.  My main hesitation is that there are also great options for secondary receivers.  Sterling Shepard, Davante Adams, and others are mixed in with the lower #1 WR group.  It’s really hard to differentiate, but if you want to go for the big name running backs, it might be wise to give up the top names and load up with high-value #2 WRs.

     At TE, you really only have a few names to pick from.  The best TE of the week should be in the group of Graham, Ebron, Green, Fiedorowicz, and Cook.  I’d suggest taking this position to either save cap space, or stack up with your QB.  Note that the Seahawks (vs DET, Ebron) and Texans (vs OAK, Walford) are the 3rd and 4th best defenses vs TE fantasy points.

     For the FLEX spot, I’m going to try to get one of those nice #2 or #3 WRs.  As for K and DEF, I’m all about ignoring them until you have your optimal offensive player lineup.  You can fit K and DEF into the puzzle later.  They’re too unpredictable to plan around.

Good luck to all, and WIN WIN WIN!